Hoang Chang-Feng Lectures Poster
中国经济增长: 是奇迹？还是泡沫？
The Growth of the Chinese Economy: A Miracle or a Bubble?
刘遵义(Lawrence J. Lau)教授
香港中文大学蓝饶富暨蓝凯丽经济学讲座教授
美国斯坦福大学李国鼎经济发展讲座荣休教授
中投国际(香港)有限公司董事长
时间：2011年4月8日（星期五）下午4:00
地点：清华大学西阶梯教室（大礼堂西南侧）
摘 要
中国自1978年实施改革开放政策以来，经济年均增长约为10%。这麽高而能持续30多年的经济增长率，是史无前例的。中国经济增长到底是奇迹，还是泡沫？
中国经济增长既不是奇迹也不是泡沫。中国经济本来就拥有巨大但未充分利用的潜在生产能力，中国政府在1978年后所实施的改革开放政策，为这些未充分利用以及利用效率低的生产资源，包括人力资源，提供了契机和动机，使得这些潜能得以发挥和实现。中国经济通过对外开放，进口资本材和引进先进技术，再进一步提高了国内生产能力。中国政府为了把经济开放所能带给中国的效益最大化，还调整了当时大大高估的人民币汇率。
中国从中央计划经济向市场经济转型中，并没有引起经济混乱或萎缩，因为中国政府在起初经济改革过程中采用了双轨制，在引进企业自主权和自由市场的同时，继续执行原有的中央计划。双轨制确保了经济改革中不会产生任何的输家，而且同时还能让资源得以全效率的利用。中国经济在其转型期间能持续增长，最终在20世纪90年代末期，市场经济部分超过了中央计划经济部分。双轨制的可行性，关键取决于政府拥有足够的威信与能力，来强制执行原有的中央计划。
在20世纪90年代，中国经济进入了发展的第二个阶段，成为世界工厂，中国出口总额呈跳跃式增长。但是在21世纪的头十年，中国经济开始重新定位，将焦距集中于其自身的庞大国内市场，同时也成为了世界市场。中国作为一个庞大的大陆经济体，会像美国那样自然而然地成为由内需推动的经济体。
在过去30多年，中国经济增长主要源头是有形投入（资本和劳动力）的增长，而非技术进步。在未来二三十年中，中国经济仍将能保持7%-8%的年均增长率，基于其较高的国内储蓄率、剩余劳动力的供给和庞大的国内市场需求，但技术进步也将成为中国经济增长更重要的源头。所以，中国经济增长不可能仅是泡沫。同时中国经验是可以复制的，它已被越南局部吸收与采纳，也对例如古巴，老挝和朝鲜这些潜在的转型经济体，提供了一个良好的可以追循的经济示范。所以，中国经济增长也并非奇迹。
Abstract
The Chinese economy has been growing at an average rate of approximately 10 percent per annum ever since China adopted a policy of economic reform and opening in 1978. Such a high rate of growth, sustained over such a long period of time—over thirty years—is unprecedented in the history of the World. Is the growth of the Chinese economy a miracle or a bubble?
It is argued that Chinese economic growth is neither a miracle nor a bubble. The Chinese economy had enormous under-utilised productive capacity to begin with and the Chinese Government adopted policies that enabled the realisation of this potential. The policy of economic reform and opening provided the opportunity as well as the incentive for the under-utilised and inefficiently utilised productive resources to be mobilised and exploited. The opening to the outside World further augmented the Chinese production possibilities through the imports of capital goods and the introduction of technologies new to China. In order to enhance the benefits of economic opening, the Chinese exchange rate, which was significantly over-valued at the time, was realigned.
But the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy did not lead to chaos and economic contraction because of the dual-track approach to economic reform, under which the pre-existing central plan continued to be enforced, side-by-side with the introduction of enterprise autonomy and the free market. The dual-track approach assured that the economic reform did not produce any losers and yet at the same time allowed resources to be efficiently deployed. The Chinese economy was able to continue to grow during its transition and eventually, it economy out-grew the central plan in the 1990s. The feasibility of the dual-track approach depended critically on the continued ability of the state to enforce the pre-existing central plan.
In the 1990s, the Chinese economy entered a second phase of development as the World’s factory. Chinese exports grew by leaps and bounds. However in the 2000s, the Chinese economy began to reorient itself to its huge domestic market, becoming also the World’s market itself. China, as a large continental economy, is, like the United States of America, a naturally internal demand-driven economy.
Throughout this period, Chinese economic growth has been primarily driven by the growth of tangible inputs—capital and labour—and not by technical progress. Going forward, technical progress will become a more important source of Chinese economic growth. The Chinese economy will continue to grow at an average rate of 7-8 percent per annum over the next two or three decades, based mostly on its high domestic savings rates and its surplus labour on the supply side and its huge domestic market on the demand side. Thus, it cannot possibly be a mere bubble. The Chinese experience has been partially replicated in Vietnam, and may well be a model for potential transition economies such as Cuba, Laos and North Korea. It is not a miracle.
